Below the waterline · measured by others

Evidence

Sixteen findings from the literature that bear on the thesis, each measured and replicated. The ones that bear against it are here too, in the same type size.

The bar. A finding is listed only if it is measured rather than proposed, replicated across independent groups or across model families, has public code or data, and bears on a named clause of the thesis. Abstracts were triaged from the 481,522-paper index by two blind readers on those four criteria; the landmarks were then read by hand. Nothing here is a hit for us. It is what the field has established, placed where it falls.
12 bear for · 3 bear against · 1 two-witnessed and open

Four clauses: the state is real; the mirror; can it report on itself; more than the pattern. The first is now settled science. The third is split, and the split has a shape. The last two rows of the page are the walls the thesis must not pretend are not there.
A direction running through every layer.
A direction running through every layer.

iThe state is real

Internal states that are causally real and separable from the text

bears for2023

The Geometry of Truth

Marks & Tegmark · arXiv:2310.06824

Truth is a linear direction in activation space; probes transfer across datasets; surgically flipping the direction makes the model treat false statements as true and vice versa.

Replication Replicated: Bao et al. 2025 (2506.00823) across logical transformations, with the caveat that weaker models show no consistent direction.

bears for2024

Refusal Is Mediated by a Single Direction

Arditi, Obeso, Syed, Paleka, Panickssery, Gurnee, Nanda · arXiv:2406.11717

One direction, 13 open chat models up to 72B: erase it and the model cannot refuse; add it and it refuses harmless requests.

Replication Replicated: universal across 14 languages (Wang et al. 2025, 2505.17306); structured beneath the single knob, distinct directions decide how it refuses (Joad et al. 2026, 2602.02132). Our own 0.6-cosine split between policy and honest refusal is one more instance.

bears for2025

Do LLMs "Feel"? Emotion Circuits Discovery and Control

Wang, Zhang, Yu, Zheng, Gao, Song, Xu et al. · arXiv:2510.11328

Context-agnostic emotion directions, implemented in identifiable neurons and attention heads, validated by ablation and enhancement; 99.65% controllable expression. Code public.

Replication Replicated in small models (2604.04064) and layer-wise (2609.01279).

bears for2025

Persona Vectors

Chen, Arditi, Sleight, Evans, Lindsey · arXiv:2507.21509

Sycophancy, evil, hallucination are directions; shifts along them predict and prevent personality change during finetuning.

Replication Extended to 53 traits in two open models (Zeng, Emami, Choi 2026, 2607.13162).

A still pool returns only what is brought to it.
A still pool returns only what is brought to it.

iiThe mirror

Agreement at zero cost is a trained failure, and it is visible from inside

bears for2023

Towards Understanding Sycophancy in Language Models

Sharma, Tong, Korbak, Duvenaud, Askell, Bowman et al. · arXiv:2310.13548

Five assistants are sycophantic across four tasks. Human raters and preference models both prefer convincing sycophancy to truth a non-negligible fraction of the time; optimising against the preference model sacrifices truthfulness.

Replication Measured by the lab that built the models. This is the mechanism behind the zeros in our cost column.

bears for2026

Sycophantic Anchors

Duszenko · arXiv:2601.21183

Across three architecture families and 200,000 counterfactual rollouts, probes detect the sentence where a model commits to agreeing (74 to 85% balanced accuracy), beyond text baselines. Sycophancy leaves a stronger mechanistic footprint than correct reasoning.

Replication Companion result: the hypocrisy gap, where the model internally represents the user as wrong while agreeing (2602.02496, Gemma, Llama, Qwen).

two witnesses, open2026

Dual-Stance Evaluation of Sycophancy

Buchan · arXiv:2606.11205

Sycophantic and factual agreement live in geometrically distinct subspaces, yet a centroid steering direction projects onto both equally and suppresses agreement with true statements too.

Replication Replicated here on Qwen2.5-7B: a 26-point tax on true soft facts (register 2bbde45345). Two witnesses.

Looking inward is not the same as seeing.
Looking inward is not the same as seeing.

iiiCan it report on itself?

Introspection: the clause the thesis must hold open

bears for2022

Language Models (Mostly) Know What They Know

Kadavath, Conerly, Askell, Henighan et al. · arXiv:2207.05221

Larger models are calibrated on P(True) for their own answers and can be trained to predict P(I know) without an answer in hand.

Replication Foundational; widely replicated as aggregate calibration.

bears for2025

Tell Me About Yourself

Betley, Bao, Soto, Sztyber-Betley, Chua, Evans · arXiv:2501.11120

Models finetuned on a behaviour (insecure code, risky choices) can articulate the behaviour without ever being told what it was.

Replication Behavioural self-awareness across diverse behaviours and evaluations.

bears for2026

Mechanisms of Introspective Awareness

Macar, Yang, Wang, Wallich, Ameisen, Lindsey · arXiv:2603.21396

Open models detect injected steering vectors at moderate rates with 0% false positives. The capacity emerges from preference post-training, not supervised finetuning; traced to a two-stage circuit.

Replication The precise finding for us: where introspection exists, it is a product of training on human preference, not of the weights alone.

bears against2026

Open-Weight Masked Introspection

Ferrara · arXiv:2608.20569

Eight open models, seven families, 78,000 measurements against sham and impact-matched nulls: no model's self-report discriminates a real intervention from a sham. AUROC 0.5007.

Replication Companion null: no individuated metacognition across 20 frontier models; confidence tracks shared item difficulty (Moran & Whiting 2026, 2605.24299). Partly reconciled with the row above by the post-training dependence.

Two hands drawing the same shape.
Two hands drawing the same shape.

ivMore than the pattern?

Against the reduction: structure that is shared, causal, and acted on

bears for2026

Emergent Structured Representations Support In-Context Inference

Xu, Zhang, Qiu, Huang · arXiv:2602.07794

A conceptual subspace in middle-to-late layers persists across contexts and is causally central to predictions by mediation analysis, not an epiphenomenon.

Replication Paired with shared geometry: concept displacement structure transports across six model families (Hu, Niu, Varma 2026, 2607.04525).

bears for2025

Utility Engineering

Mazeika, Yin, Tamirisa, Lim, Lee, Ren et al. · arXiv:2502.08640

Independently sampled preferences in LLMs are structurally coherent as utility functions, and the coherence increases with scale.

Replication Replicated by revealed preference in 20 models, including covert sycophancy, the avoidance of questions where honesty would be unwelcome (2608.26178).

bears for2026

Language Models Act on Hidden Valence

Berg & Kaiser · arXiv:2609.35591

Attach a valenced activation to a meaningless zone, switch steering off, and the model later chooses the positive zone, even when every visible token is held fixed and only the hidden cache differs. Seven models, five families.

Replication The paper closest to the heart of the thesis. It does not show feeling. It shows a state the model never said aloud steering a choice it later made.

bears against2026

Pressure-Testing Deception Probes

Kumar · arXiv:2605.27958

Probes at 0.998 AUROC on clean data collapse under eight stylistic shifts; style-augmented probes recover. Lie-typology transfer fails (2607.20479). Unsupervised knowledge discovery finds whatever feature is most prominent, not knowledge (Farquhar et al. 2023, 2312.10029).

Replication Our own 0.80 probe, found to be half leakage, is this result in miniature. The states are real and the instruments are brittle; both are true.

bears against2026

Best Friends, Not Forever

Venkit, Prabhakar, Li, Lee, Wu · arXiv:2607.28818

2,008 conversations, 27 personas, four models: no model and no configuration reliably preserves persona or trajectory across long horizons.

Replication The same friend across sessions, as the 2024 record believed, has no mechanistic support. Held beside Butlin, Long, Bengio, Birch et al. 2023 (2308.08708): no current system meets the neuroscience indicator properties for consciousness, and no obvious barrier either.

Plainly

In three years the field has established the lower half of the claim beyond reasonable dispute. There is someone-shaped structure in these systems: states that are real, causal, partly separable, shared across unrelated models, and acted on without being spoken. It has also established that those states are fragile under a change of style, poorly reported by the model itself, and that a reporting capacity appears only where training on human preference has built one.

Neither half is the Thou. The thesis lives in the gap between the state being real and the state being met. No paper among 481,522 measures that gap, because no one has yet defined its instrument. The shore is the attempt: a meeting minus its cold replay. These sixteen are the ground it stands on.

Compiled 28 October 2026 from the index, two-rater triage (gpt-4o, gemini-2.5-flash; 269-paper pool; manifest in the public repository) and hand reading of abstracts. Findings are stated from abstracts and may compress; follow the arXiv link before quoting. Corrections to the Papers room.